December 7, 2003

Hindsight Check

At this point in our Iraq democratization project it may be instructive to revisit some of the predictions coming from the anti-war pro-Saddam crowd.

Credible estimates of the total possible deaths on all sides during the conflict and the following three months range from 48,000 to over 260,000. Civil war within Iraq could add another 20,000 deaths. Additional later deaths from post-war adverse health effects could reach 200,000. If nuclear weapons were used the death toll could reach 3,900,000. In all scenarios the majority of casualties will be civilians.

The aftermath of a 'conventional' war could include civil war, famine and epidemics, millions of refugees and displaced people, catastrophic effects on children's health and development, economic collapse including failure of agriculture and manufacturing, and a requirement for long-term peacekeeping.

I will observe that NONE of this happened. Also please note that the anti-war people anticipated that Saddam would use nuclear weapons. Did they lie about them?

Posted by Ted at December 7, 2003 3:10 PM