June 26, 2004

Why a military draft is extremely unlikely

The mass media also tends to take seriously proposals to revive the draft. What the media have missed is what most military historians know; the draft is a recent (19th century) innovation that never really worked. Britain dropped conscription in the early 1960s. The United States followed a decade later, and by the end of the 20th century, most nations that had conscription were planning to get rid of it. Conscription was never a popular policy for the simple reason that if you take all the young men that are eligible, you go bankrupt training them well, or, as it more often the case, sort of half train them. That means a lot more of them get killed if called up in wartime and sent straight off to combat. If you don’t call everyone into service, you create a lot of discontent among those called (and their families), who note the many others who are not called. If the Vietnam war had not happened, the students (and non-students of the same age) would still have been out their protesting anyway. Not about the war, but about the seemingly arbitrary way a few were drafted, and the majority were let go. During the 1960s, with the baby boomer generation coming of age, there were 3-4 times as many young men available for the draft each year, as were needed.

But why are all those young men, and women, still volunteering when there’s obviously a war going on, and they stand a chance of getting hurt? There are several reasons. But perhaps the most important one is that better training, tactics and equipment have made the current war much less lethal than past wars. The potential recruits realize this. Far more young people come back from the war, with exciting war stories, than come back dead or mutilated. The casualty rates in Afghanistan and Iraq have been lower than any war in the past. This makes a difference, because the young men who volunteer have, like all young men before them, a somewhat reckless attitude. They want some adventure, they want to prove themselves. And they’ve seen guys their age doing and not dying in large numbers. There’s also the patriotic angle. To these young folks, there’s a war on and they have a chance to play a part.

The recruiters report that they are getting more resistance from parents, but once the kids turn 18, they don’t need parental permission. Kids that age, being what they are, will see rebelling against their parents wishes as a positive thing.

From Strategypage.com Posted by Ted at June 26, 2004 4:01 PM