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A commentor, Ruth, on a local blog asked what I predicted in the coming Iraqi elections. Here was my response.
That's a very good question, Ruth. I like to read www.strategypage.com to get a more realistic look at Iraq than the Legacy Media gives. But none of us as has a complete picture. What we get is filtered.Posted by Ted at January 20, 2005 9:27 PMIraq has proved more difficult than I would have predicted. I think I was a little overconfident after Afghanistan.
I think the Iraqi elections will go pretty well in most providences. But I could be wrong. This is not to say that some of the Sunni providences won’t have a low turnout. But if the Iraqi’s turn out in large numbers, I rate them as the bravest people I know of. Would you go out and vote if you knew you could get shot or blown up for voting? I don’t know if I would.
The terrorist are clearly trying to return to a dictatorial regime. Should we leave before the job is done, all those Iraqi’s that have sided with us are toast.
The bravery and sacrifice of the Iraqi people continue to amaze me. Terrorists blow up police stations and more Iraqi’s show up to join the police.
For Bush politically, he has to beat expectations. If I were he, I’d sandbag the press and say how the elections would likely have a low turnout do to the threats of violence. I haven’t seen him to that – yet.
Iraq is a hard and perilous task. The president has not taken the path of least resistance. I don’t know if the U.S. population has the focus to see it through to a successful conclusion.