August 23, 2005

One Reason Why the Iraqi Insurgency Lives

StrategyPage has an interesting post on one reason why it's being so difficult to tame Iraq. We're too nice!

Defeating the Sunni Arab rulers of Iraq has proved harder than anticipated. Like Germany and Japan during World War II, Iraq was run by a militaristic dictatorship. Unlike Germany and Japan, defeating the Iraqi government did not eliminate the militaristic faction that supported the dictatorship. The reason was simple. In Iraq, the dictator was backed by a religious faction; the Sunni Arabs. In Germany and Japan, the dictators were backed by supporters united by class and politics. The Sunni Arabs are also united by blood, as the Sunni Arabs are organized as clans and tribes, and feel a unity from that, as well as their common religious beliefs.

But there's another reason why there was no continued fighting in Germany and Japan. The fighting in World War II was brutal, with much of the pain being inflicted on civilians. Germany lost over five million dead, Japan over three million. The bombing and ground fighting destroyed the homes of civilians, 255,000 in Germany and 2.2 million (because of their more flammable construction) in Japan. At the end of World War II, the civilians, who supported the dictatorships, had been hammered. They were beaten, and willing to accept new political arrangements.

Such was not the case in Iraq in 2003. Smart bombs and a short war kept the civilian casualties low. The Sunni Arabs did not appreciate their good fortune, and, instead, saw an opportunity to continue fighting, to terrorize their conquerors and regain power. It's not working, and the Sunni Arab population is getting the pain they were spared during the invasion. The Sunni Arabs are being threatened with worse.

Some say that violence begets more violence. Not necessarily so. If you apply enough violence, the other side will say uncle and give in. Maybe that’s what we should have done in Iraq.

Posted by The Vorlon at August 23, 2005 9:27 PM